Well, I tried… but with three jobs and 17 credit hours this semester this site is just too much for me to handle by myself.  So for now, I hope that if you read the site in the past that you enjoyed it; if this is your first time then feel free to check out some older posts or hit the “back” button as fast as humanly possible.

Who knows, next semseter might bring me more free time, as I will be student teaching and probably down to only one job.  So although the site is stagnant now… I will likely be back to club again.

Eric

Well.  So it’s week one and according to some, the final scrimmage to prep for this game saw the second team defense outplay the first team offense… and the second team offense outplay the first team defense.  So what does that mean?  It means I have no good information to base a prediction off of.

Really, I think the only things that I can base my prediction from is that Oklahoma State returns their starting QB, while WSU will unveil a new defense; keep in mind that Paul Wulff’s defense at Eastern Washington was not very highly rated.  So truth be told, the end result of this game should really come down to whether or not the WSU offense can keep up with the Cowboys.

Vegas sees that as the storyline as well, and the “home team” Cougs are 7 point underdogs going into their season opener in Seattle.  Since they are the “home team”, that typically means that the spread would be 10 at a neutral site… and not knowing how well the turnout will be on Saturday… it could be somewhat neutral.  Either way, we are looking at OSU being 7 to 10 point favorites this weekend.

Realistically though, OSU didn’t exactly have a stellar defense last year either; they were ranked 80th in points allowed.  This week I can’t even really break down the key players or starters for each team, because in week 1 of the college football season, if you tank the game and your backup shines, it’s just that easy to lose your job.  I see a lot of starting jobs being won and lost this weekend, which is probably the most important part of the game.  But since there’s so very little to base a predition off of… it’s time to break out my quarter to at least get a winner and a loser on the books for this one.  Best 2 out of 3.

Toss 1: OSU

Tosses 2-8: all OSU

I tried, but when the quarter only comes up tails, that means visitor wins… and it came up tails 8 times in a row.  My heart is telling me to pick WSU… the quarter is adamant that OSU will be the victor.  And since the quarter is essentially as good at predicting games as an expert… I have to yield to the quarter.

The  quarter says:
OSU 42
WSU 35

[When it comes time to talk San Jose Sharks hockey, it’s time to Jump the Shark(ie). A column based on my thoughts, observations, and commentary on my favorite NHL franchise - and named in homage to one really crappy episode of Happy Days that more or less, signified the coming of the end ]

Plans?

Gone.

Future?

Out the window.

Are the Sharks a better team?

Okay, so future out the window… not entirely, but still, with the Sharks most recent trades I really am left scratching my head. It would seem that Sharks’ GM Doug Wilson must have been told that if Lord Stanley’s Cup doesn’t have the San Jose franchise name on it he will suddenly be having a lot more free time. So we are witnissing a lot of changes with the team, which has unfortunately included the loss of the 2003, 2006, 2008, and 2009 1st round draft picks. That’s a lot of investments in the future Doug is giving up to live in the now.

Then again, in May of 2007, the GM was quoted as saying that “We’re not going to sit idly by… There will be changes.” But a year later, and Wilson’s “changes” seem to have amounted only in the signing of Jeremy Roenick. That’s it. So once again the team has the same, predictable, early exit from the playoffs, and I’m starting to think maybe we should blame the GM who promised sweeping changes, and provided none. No change to the team; no difference in result. Go figure

So now, a year later, the changes have come. Head coach Ron Wilson is gone. Brian Campbell and Steve Bernier plus the 1st round draft pick (2008) it took to get him? Gone. (But since Bernier was a free agent anyway… let’s not get too involved with how he affects the blueline.)

Instead, the team has been entrusted to a very good man in Todd McLellan who has never been a head coach before. In order to man the blueline and make up for losing Campbell, the GM decided to trade another 1st round pick (2009), blueline prospect Ty Wishart(16th overall pick in 2006) and 2003 first round pick Matt Carle (4 years $13.75 mil) for Brad Lukowich 3 years 4.7 mil) and Dan Boyle (6 years $40 mil). In addition, the Sharks signed the locally hated Rob Blake (1 year $5 mil).

Let’s also not forget that Craig Rivet (4 year $14 mil) was traded to Buffalo for some 2nd round draft picks.

So let’s tally that up then.

Out the door: Brian Campbell, Matt Carle, Ty Wishart, 2008 1st round draft pick, 2009 first round draft pick, Ron Wilson.
In the door: Dan Boyle, Brad Lukowich, Rob Blake, Todd McLellan.

Salary against the cap out the door (2008-09 only): $13.55 million
Salary against the cap in the door (09-09 only): $13.32 million

So for only $230,000 more against the salary cap, the Sharks could have hypothetically had Campbell, Rivet, Carle, Wishart, and their 2009 first round draft pick instead of Boyle, Lukowich, Blake and 2nd round picks in ‘09 and ‘10. Are there really that many people out there who prefer the 2nd option over Campbell and friends? Even without Campbell, couldn’t they have just signed Blake and had Blake, Rivet, Carle, Wishart, and their 2009 first round draft pick?

Maybe I’m picking on Dougie too much, but I really can’t figure out the rationale for the decisions made by San Jose in the past two years. If you ask me, we are witnessing Doug Wilson’s career jumping the shark, and unfortunately for Doug, he’s not cool like Fonzie, so if the team struggles early next year, I think he may be the first one gone.

Say your goodbyes now.

In 2007, before Mike Hargrove left the helm, the Seattle Mariners were playing .577 baseball and looking like they were on the verge of making a run at the AL West title. Since then, under the direction of then-bench coach John McLaren, they have fallen all the way down to the cellar in the AL West with an “improved team”.

The g***** mistake here is not that f***** John McLaren went on a tirade… the f***** mistake was waiting this g***** long. I’m *****d off at all the managers who take too g***** long to get their a***s up there and let these overpaid f**** that they can’t half-a** it every night.

Wait, what am I talking about… I’m an A’s fan… lose every g***** night… please. John… don’t you think you’re being a bit harsh? Take it easy on ‘em… they’re just adults being paid millions of dollars to play a game. Let’s not get too carried away.

Good talk.

This week I’ve been playing around with some pitching stats and this just blew me away: Rockies RHP Aaron Cook has an ERA/WHIP/BAA of 4.26/1.56/.297 on the road… but 2.33/.88/.215 at home! That defies all conventional logic with Coors being on of the biggest hitter-friendly parks in Major League Baseball.

So for Cook, he is pitching much better in one of the best hitter’s parks than elsewhere. What gives? I just can’t figure this one out… the law of averages would suggest that since Colorado batters are hitting thirteen points higher at home than on the road… then opposing hitters should be doing similarly? But they aren’t… Colorado pitchers, as an entire staff, have a lower ERA/WHIP/BAA line at home of 4.74/1.41/.274; compare that to the road line of 5.18/1.59/.275. I’d say that this is the humidor at work… but it still doesn’t explain why the Rocks hitters are not subject to the same laws of physics as their opponents…

I always wanted to know what the proper beverage was for chasing beaver… now I know…

When it comes to sports… especially with the explosion of fantasy sports… player information is huge, and fans want to know what is going on with players’ health. Well, sometimes you get what you ask for…

May 29 3B Carlos Guillen is expected to return to Detroit’s lineup Friday for the start of a weekend series in Seattle. Guillen missed Wednesday’s game and Detroit was off Thursday. “I’m going to stand him for two days,” Leyland said in deference to Guillen’s hemorrhoid condition. “I can use him as a hitter, but we need to let that quiet down. So with a day off, I chose this time.”

This makes me long for the NFL season and Bill Belichick’s notably vague and often misleading reports. It would be funny though if this was his skipper’s way of covering up a more embarrassing story… espeically when reporting back to the local papers:

“He can hardly move — he’s got hemorrhoids so bad,” Tigers manager Jim Leyland said Tuesday. “He’s been playing with hemorrhoids that probably need to be lanced. He probably shouldn’t have been out there (third base on Monday).” Leyland said the hemorrhoids have been bothering Guillen for about four or five days, but they have gotten worse in the last few days. “He could hardly walk (Monday night),” Leyland said.

So if anyone has read anything about WSU recently… my guess is that it’s been fairly negative. Most recently was the news that Xavier Hicks was suspended for three games after stealing and using someone else’s credit card, and putting rubbing alcohol in former-teammate Grady Maxwell’s contact lens case: both felonies.

True, Hicks did bargain down to third-degree credit-card theft and attempted third-degree assault instead of the felonies, so on the record it looks a bit better than him being a felon… but not great. But what gets me is that this “conduct council” (apparently new head coach Paul Wulff either doesn’t want to be accountable for this decision or learned his management skills from watching “Survivor“) only suspended the safety three games. That’s it; three games. Only three games after dragging the good name of WSU through the mud for the past several months. My question is, what punishment would this “conduct council” have recommended if I had been convicted of attempted third-degree assault of a WSU football player? Expulsion? Suspension for the entire fall semester at least.

And now it seems that even after being allowed to bargain down from being a felon, Hicks still hasn’t learned his lesson. Huh, wonder why. Maybe it’s because this decision by the “tribal council” (which again I love because it’s mob mentality at it’s finest: no one is accountable) wasn’t strong enough, didn’t send a strong enough signal to Hicks that it’s not just about him screwing up his own life: it’s about him degrading the reputation of the WSU football program, WSU student-athlete, and ultimately the reputation of WSU students like me. He also puts his teammates seasons’ at risk because, hell, can they really count on him to be there for them down the stretch… or will he be creating more problems?

All I’ve got to say is that I don’t care how creative of an offense Paul Wulff is brining to WSU (and although I’m certain that he is a good coach), if he doesn’t have the balls to send a message here and now, then who is really running this program? To me, this was his first test… and he failed it pretty miserably.  It’s his giant head up there that is the face of this program; so council or no council, this one’s on him.

[Editor’s note: the biggest shame in all of this though is that the fact that Grady Maxwell’s once promising career looks like it has ended due to injuries… and no one seems to care. They only care about when they can expect their felonious starting safety to be back on the field. Priorities folks. Football is great, and I love it, but there’s so much more going on here.]

Last June (so almost a year ago) I wrote this post citing numerous similarities between the World Series winning Florida Marlins teams and the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, and stating the the 2008 team “will win the AL Wild Card and make things interesting“. Since Tampa’s success is a hot topic lately, I thought it would be a good time to revisit this post, the insane reasons for my prediction, and see if I can find any statistical links showing why the Devil Rays are suddenly considered to be a legit Wild Card contender, when last year about this time I couldn’t seem to find anyone to agree with me…

Insanity Prevails

Okay, so the basis for my logic last time around was pretty slim, but it is spooky, and I must say, original. Like I said last time, the Florida Marlins won the Series exactly 10 years after expansion: this is year 10 for the Tampa Bay franchise. Less than 10 years after Disney made a movie using the Los Angeles Angels (Angles in the Outfield), the Angels won the Series in 2002. That same year, The Rookie was released, and by my logic, passed on the mojo to the Devil Rays. The logic also included some other pretty far-fetched similarities to World Series winners. A new one that I’ve noticed is that 2002 is the first year that the Angels used ‘Anaheim’ on their jerseys since 1965… hence a name change? Of course the Tampa Bay team dropped the unmentionable word Devil from their name in 2008. Also, the 2002 the Angels were predicted to finish second-to-last in the AL West… well, the Devil Rays were predicted to finish second-to-last in the AL East.

That’s probably enough hodge podge, so why don’t I actually try to show how this year is the year rather than rely completely on horoscopes and random connections to past winners…

Counter Argument: “The Devil Rays Do This Every Year”

True. The Tampa Bay franchise has typically been plagued by seasons of hot starts and slow finishes. So really, in order to prove that they are legit in 2008, I just need to show that they can actually sustain their hot start this time around. If they can keep this up, then there is no reason why they can’t be in the running for the 2008 Wild Card.

A Year Older, A Year Wiser

First off, age does make a difference; especially with pitching staffs. It makes a difference mainly because if your pitchers are too young, they don’t have the game experience or maturity to know what to do when things get sticky. Younger pitchers are also more likely to rely on a single pitch - typically their fastball - and try to strike everyone out. Even one more year of big league experience can really help a guy work out issues like that. For example, take a look at Edwin Jackson’s xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) from 2005 to 2008. Since having an xFIP of 6.53 in 2005, he has gone down each year to 5.50, 5.02, and 4.30 in 2008. Since this is a pitching stat that does not rely on fielding at all, that has to mean that Edwin is making better pitches and probably has learned a thing or two over the years.

In fact, this is Tampa’s oldest average pitching staff (average 28.0 years old) since the 1999-2000 seasons with an average of 29.3 years of age, but those staffs were headlined by guys like Bobby Witt, Wilson Alvarez, Steve Trachsel, and Doc Gooden… not Scott Kazmir and James Shields. So it is entirely plausible that Tampa Bay has enough experience to help maintain solid play throughout 2008 and avoid another letdown.

A Run Prevented Is Just As Good As A Run Scored

Right now, Tampa Bay is on pace to make a total of 78 errors during the 2008 season. That is significantly lower than the error totals of 117 and 116 in 2007 and 2006. Of these errors, in 2007 22 were made at second base (led by BJ Upton), 16 at third base (led by Akinoir Iwamura), 25 at shortstop (led by Brendan Harris), and 13 in the outfield (led by Delmon Young). So as you can tell from this list, none of the major violators of proper fielding are still with the team, or still at those positions.

In comparison, so far in 2008, the team has made 0 errors at 2B, 2 errors at third base, and 6 errors at shortstop. Although the 6 errors at SS projects out to 22 - roughly the same as in 2007 - there have been major signs of defensive improvement by the team, and in the cases of Iwamura and Upton, they are much better defenders at their new positions than at their “natural” positions. The end result? a fielding percentage of .987 - a number good enough to put them #1 in the AL East, #5 in all of baseball.

In terms of what that means to their pitching, the teams DIPS (Defense Independent Pitching Statistic) is 109% of their ERA. Hence, their defense bails out their staff for about 1/3 of a run per game. If the team can keep up this defense - or even improve at SS since Jason Bartlett’s .594 OPS isn’t exactly making him irreplaceable in the lineup - then I’d have to think that Tampa has the ability to stay in the top 10 in team ERA, and give them a much better chance at hanging around in 2008 to make a run.

What They Are Lacking

The biggest problem last year was their bullpen, but I think that Troy Pervical was a good addition there. Also, you have converted starters like JP Howell and Dan Wheeler (who was a starter for the Rays back in the day) doing quite well, and even Trevor Miller has held his own (although if they want to win… they’ll have to do better than Trevor Miller). They still need a couple of arms in the bullpen to make up for when their starters begin to struggle or need rest.

I think they also lack a power-bat since Carlos Pena - surprise, surprise - hasn’t been able to match his career year of 2007 which was dramatically different than his career stats suggested he was capable of.

I think that they can address these issues in a few ways. One way is of course by trading. I think that one option that cannot be dismissed is using their #5 prospect Reid Brignac as a trading chip. Really, Brignac has okay power, and some guys like this carry much more value as prospects than they ever will as major leaguers. Using Brignac as a chip to get a relief pitcher might not be a bad idea, especially since the Rays have the #1 overall draft pick this year and are likely to grab high school shortstop Tim Beckham with the pick.

The other options are to pre-maturely call up their #2, #3, or #4 prospects David Price, Jake McGee or Wade Davis to fill out their bullpen. I’d have to cite how coming out of the pen seems to have helped to develop guys like Johan Santana and more recelntly Zack Greinke. Not only that, but Baseball America projects McGee to be a relief pitcher anyway… so might as well get things going in that direction.

As for first base… not a whole lot you can do besides wait it out. Pena had a terrible April last year before a .356 May… so there may be at least a .260 hitter in there somewhere waiting to come out and play.

Tampa Bay - Your 2008 AL Wild Card Team

In the end, maybe I’ve convinced you… maybe I haven’t. But I sure am glad that it’s at least a discussion… and I have to at least throw out the possibility that the sudden decrease in steroid use will favor the small-market clubs for a while as they have probably stockpiled the young hitters who traditionally would have been held back until they developed more power (Even Longoria, BJ Upton, Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, Daric Barton, etc). Now, the league is regressing back to where a good gap hitter seems to be the prototypical player… not your beefed up slugger. And as long as the league keeps regressing back to a time when pitching and hitting for average were key, I think the smaller clubs have more than a decent chance against the likes of the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, and other big market teams.